It's time to press the panic button on “Godzilla" El Niño

The Philippines has a habit of treating disasters as tomorrow's problem until they become today's emergency.

Our governments wait for dams to run dry before talking about water security. We wait for crops to fail before worrying about the food supply. We wait for devastating floods before discussing resilience. Then, after the crisis passes, attention fades and the cycle begin again.

This time, however, the warning signs are too serious to ignore.

DOST-PAGASA has warned that a strong El Niño, currently active in the tropical Pacific, is expected to intensify into a very strong El Niño between September and December 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027. PAGASA cautions that the phenomenon may bring warmer temperatures, below-normal rainfall, drought, water supply stress, agricultural losses, public health challenges, and economic disruption. At the same time, it reminds us that El Niño does not eliminate the risk of extreme rainfall, as monsoon systems and tropical cyclones can still trigger severe flooding.

Recent analyses have gone even further. Reports describing the unfolding 2026-2027 climate event characterize it as a "Godzilla" super El Niño and potentially the strongest such event in at least a millennium. The expected pattern is particularly alarming: floods in one phase, drought in another.

Yet despite these warnings, public attention remains surprisingly muted.

Recently, I watched the awarding ceremony of the 59th Search for the Ten Outstanding Students of the Philippines (TOSP) Region 3, where P&A Grant Thornton was honored to be among the sponsors. The guest of honor was Dr. DJ Darwin Bandoy, a TOSP alumnus and the Director of Research and Creative Work at the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute, home of Project NOAH.

His message was direct, urgent, and unsettling.

"It's time to press the panic button."

Those words have stayed with me.

Dr. Bandoy spoke of Dinagat Islands, where communities have been experiencing severe water shortages. Reports indicate that the province has already declared a state of calamity because of worsening drought conditions and a growing water crisis, with residents enduring prolonged periods without sufficient water supply and local governments resorting to water rationing.

His frustration was evident. Why was there not more public outrage? Why was the issue not dominating social media discussions? Why were we not paying attention when fellow Filipinos were already living through what may be an early glimpse of what other parts of the country could soon face?

Perhaps the most sobering part of his message was not what is happening today, but what may happen next.

According to Dr. Bandoy, we are only at the beginning of the story. While El Niño may peak toward the end of 2026, some of its harshest impacts may be felt during the first quarter of 2027, when rainfall becomes even rare and water shortages intensify. This observation is consistent with PAGASA projections showing that the most critical drought conditions could emerge between January and March 2027.

The implications are enormous.

Water shortages are only the first layer. Reduced agricultural output can affect food security and drive inflation. Hydropower generation may decline. Businesses may encounter supply disruptions. Public health systems could face rising heat-related illnesses. Vulnerable sectors, particularly farmers, fisherfolk, children and the elderly, will likely bear the heaviest burden. PAGASA has warned that severe dry spells and water stress threaten food security, energy production, public health, and the broader economy.

Beyond the loss of water, Dr. Bandoy warned of another danger that many people fail to appreciate. Higher temperatures and warmer oceans can create conditions that intensify extreme weather events. Climate experts have repeatedly emphasized that El Niño can coexist with destructive rainfall events, even while much of the country experiences prolonged dry conditions. PAGASA has cautioned that active tropical cyclones may still bring episodes of heavy rainfall despite the overall drying trend.

We have seen this before. Typhoon Ondoy, one of the most devastating typhoons in recent Philippine history, struck Metro Manila and nearby provinces in September 2009 during an El Niño year. For many Filipinos, Ondoy remains a painful reminder that drought and flooding are not mutually exclusive threats. During an El Niño year, communities may suffer prolonged water shortages, only to be overwhelmed later by extreme rainfall from tropical cyclones.

This dual threat creates a dangerous paradox. Communities may face water scarcity in one month and flooding next. Reservoir levels may fall while intense storms overwhelm urban drainage systems. The challenge is no longer simply managing drought or controlling floods. We must prepare for both simultaneously.

The question, therefore, is not whether we have been warned. The question is what we do with the warning.

The timing of these warnings is particularly important. As Congress deliberates on our 2027 national budget, there is a unique opportunity to strengthen investments in climate adaptation and disaster prevention before the worst impacts are felt. For decades, public spending has often been concentrated on relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction after disasters occur. Yet, every major disaster teaches the same lesson: prevention is almost always cheaper than recovery.

If scientists are correct that this could be one of the most severe El Niño events in modern history, then this is precisely the time to allocate more resources toward water security infrastructure, drought mitigation programs, early warning systems, scientific forecasting, watershed protection, agricultural adaptation, and community resilience measures. The cost of preparedness will almost certainly be lower than the economic and human costs of inaction.

The national government must also ensure that climate science informs decision-making. PAGASA, Project NOAH, universities, and scientific institutions generate valuable forecasts and risk assessments. These should be integrated more deeply into local development plans, infrastructure investments, and disaster preparedness programs. Public communication must likewise be intensified.

Most Filipinos still think of El Niño as simply hotter weather. It is far more than that. It is a national risk event with implications for public health, economic stability, food supply, and disaster management.

But the government cannot do this alone. The private sector has a critical role to play.

Businesses often view climate-related risks as environmental issues separate from business strategy. That mindset is becoming obsolete. Water shortages, energy disruptions, supply chain interruptions and workforce health concerns are fundamental business issues. Organizations should be reviewing water dependency, strengthening business continuity plans, assessing climate risks, and evaluating supply chain vulnerabilities.

This is where sustainability initiatives become relevant, not as a public relations exercise, but as a management discipline. Over the past several years, sustainability reporting has evolved into a valuable tool for understanding risks and building resilience. The most useful reports are not glossy publications filled with aspirations. They identify material risks, measure exposures, establish targets, and foster accountability.

When companies assess climate-related risks, measure water consumption, and evaluate adaptation strategies, they are doing more than complying with reporting expectations. They are helping prepare their organizations, employees, and communities for an uncertain future.

No sustainability report can stop a drought, but the discipline of understanding and managing climate risks can help organizations withstand one.

Ultimately, this challenge extends beyond government agencies and corporations. It is about citizenship.

Dr. Bandoy's call was directed not only to scientists and institutions, but also to networks of leaders, professionals, and communities. As a TOSP alumnus, he challenged us to support coordinated disaster and public health response efforts and to help mobilize expertise where it is needed most.

The Philippines has been given something that many disaster-stricken communities never receive: a warning in advance.

Science has sounded the alarm. PAGASA has issued its advisories. Researchers are raising concerns. Project NOAH continues to develop tools designed to save lives using the best Filipino science available. The droughts of early 2027 are not yet inevitable in their full severity. The water crises, food shortages, business disruptions and preventable deaths that often accompany such events need not become our future.

Avoiding them requires action today, not after dams reach critical levels, not after crops fail, and not after communities begin rationing water.

When a TOSP alumnus, scientist and resilience advocate stands before a room of young leaders and says it is time to press the panic button, perhaps he is not calling for panic at all.

Perhaps he is calling for something rarer and far more important: urgency.

The most dangerous response to the coming “Godzilla” El Niño is not fear.

It is complacency.

As published in The Manila Times, dated 07 October 2026